Maricopa Arizona Home Report – 17JAN Weekly Housing Report
Here are the new numbers and my take on them.
ACTIVE: 784, down from prior week of 796. The wait for the release of pent up lender inventory continues. With the number of new listings remaining relatively steady,very strong buyer activity has caused this number to continue to decline. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this trend will not continue regardless of buyer activity. Expect the release of excess inventory to begin soon and the number of actibe listings to return to mid-2010 levels. It’s just a matter of time.
SHORT SALES: 342, down from 351. After dropping on a weekly basis through the Holiday season, this number has remained relatively steady.A review of the 30-60-90 days delinquent list tells me that this number will also begin to increase. If, in fact, the invenotry of lender owned homes increase as expected, this will have a profound impact on the short sale inventory as most buyers will elect to forego the short sale route in favor of foreclosures. Once again, so much hinges on what the lenders decide to do with their “shadow inventory”.
LENDER OWNED: 164, down from 175. This is the eighth straight week of decline in inventory. I have already addressed my expectations and how this number plays a big role in the short sale inventory.
AWC: 170, up from 158. As expected, due to the strong buyer activity which has been fueled by the return of the seasonal buyers and coupled with a delayed lender release of their foreclosure inventory, buyers have continued to turn their attention to short sales. Many of these offers may be cancelled in the future if buyers/agents are able to find other homes while waiting for a lender response. But for now, the short sale market is brisk and new short sale listings, especially the more desriable homes, are being heavily scrutinized.
PENDING: 239, up from 224. This is also a reflection of the strong buyer activity taking place. In addition, we are seeing more short sales being accepted and the transition of short sales from AWC to PENDING also plays a role.
CLOSED: 41, up from 31. As stated before, buyer activity is strong and, based on the number of AWC and PENDING, I expect this number to remain strong for at least the next three months.
AUCTION: 17, down form 24. Though down slightly, the number of homes available at auction is definitely higher then experienced just a short time ago. The moratoriums appear to be over and the courthouse steps should be a “happening place” for months to come.Currently, top dollar is being paid for most of these homes in relation to market price. However, as investors rebuild their inventory after the Holiday lull and therefore take a less aggressive approach to the bidding process, highly discounted sales should return.
SUMMARY: So much is hinging on what the lenders do with their inventory. In addition, it will be interesting to see if, in fact, there is another surge of homeowners pursuing the short sale option. Buyer activity is just beginning to heat up and will remain strong for the next few months fueled by the influx of “snowbirds”. The strong Canadian dollar and and hard winter in the U.S. has acted as a motivating factor for many.
Click here for the full monthly report: Monthly home data
