Maricopa Arizona Housing Market Report – Weekly Update 4APR
A number of mixed signals appear in this week’s report as inventory continues to decline. As I predicted, March was a strong month for closed sales and, in fact, the number is the highest seen in quite some time. Read along as I dive into the numbers.
ACTIVE: 453, down from 497. This is not a sharp decline but inventory of homes for sale in Maricopa Arizona dropped once again. As I mentioned before, invenory peaked in NOV 2010 so this represents a decline of nearly 50% in less than 6 months. Foreclosures continue to trickle in but they cannot keep up with the pace of closed sales. It should be noted, however, that without a near record month in closed sales, this number would have actually increased. I view this as a sign that inventory will begin rising very soon as the “snowbird migration” back home peaks.
SHORT SALES: 180, down from 186. This number is also down about 50% from its OCT 2010 high. The majority of distressed homeowners have most likely modified their loan, participated in a short sale ot “walked away”. That being said, there is still a long list of 30,60,90 day delinquents so I expect to see this number grow. If, in fact, inventory begins an upward climb, buyers will begin to turn their attention towards other properties that can be purchased quicker.
LENDER OWNED: 78, down from 81. This is not a sharp decline and reflects the overall decline in inventory along with the huge amount of closed sales. Though I do not track new lender owned listings, I am sure that this number was higher than normal. In my predictions hold true, this number will begin to rise in a couple of months as most of the seaonal buyers will have returned home.
AWC (short sales under contract): 215, down from 231. At first glance, this is a puzzling decline based on declining inventory. It may, however, be another signal of the “snowbird migration” as many of these buyers do not want to place offers on these homes with the knowledge that they will most likely not receive an answer before they leave.
PENDING: 358, flat from last week. Even though a huge amount of homes closed ascrow, this number remained steady. Without a doubt, April will be another very strong month for closed sales.
CLOSED SALES: 67, relatively flat for last week’s 69. As I mentioned in the last report, we have to go back to APR of 2010 to find numbers this high.
CLOSED SALES FOR MARCH: 291, up from 180 in FEB. HUGE number. I have to go back to MAY of 2009 to find one greater! The fact of the matter is that this could have been quite a bit higher if we had more inventory in specific properties. Expect MAY numbers to be much the same.
AUCTION: 25, up from 22.The number of homes available at auction remains steady. I also see more high quality homes entering the market place as a result. These are being placed under contract quickly as investor “flips”.
SUMMARY: Although I expected MAR to have a strong showing in closed sales in Maricopa Arizona, even my expectations were exceeded greatly. Buyers are out in full force and, though many of the snowbirds are in the process of leaving, many more are on the way. Patti and I have a number of buyers that have made their travel plans for the month of APR and they will be arriving in Maricopa soon.
Though the numbers for Maricopa AZ were a bit mixed, I still see the same trends. Without a doubt, lenders have begun to release some of their “shadow” inventory. Over 100 more homes were closed in MAR versus FEB yet the invetory stayed relatively steady. If foreclosure releases remain at the current pace (and there is plenty of inventory to justify this), it is only a matter of time (a few months) before we see the long expected rise in inventory. I expect a very strong summer buying season driven by delayed seasonal buyer purchases along with relocations during school vacations. Unfortunately, I do not predict that it will keep up with the foreclosure releases. Whether or not there will be enough buying activity to fend off the dreaded “double dip” remains to be seen.
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