Maricopa Arizona Weekly Housing Market Update – 27 DEC
Every Monday I update the numbers on my spreadsheet which tracks the Maricopa Arizona housing market, subdivision homes only. Here is the latest news:
ACTIVE: 838, down from 865. This is a 7% decline for the month of DEC. Inventory continues to slide due to the various foreclosure moratoriums and continued buyer strength.
SHORT SALES: 395, flat. Once again, this is to be expected as the number of closed short sales is balanced by the small number of new listings. Many homeowners continue to wait until after the Holiday season to begin the short sale process.
LENDER OWNED: 195, down from 206. Behind buyer strength, this number continues to decline as the foreclosure moratoriums continue.
AWC: 155, down from 160. This number has remained relatively flat for the month. Once again, it is a little surprising to me that this number has not increased due to the lower number of lender owned homes available. Personally, I continue to see a great deal of interest in my own short sale listings and received three offers this week.
PENDING: 235, down from 262. The number of pending transactions took a big dip. The strong number of closings coupled with the fact that many buyers were most likely in the “Holiday mode” and were not making as mnay offers is the obvious culprit.
CLOSED: 51. Another solid week for closings. The monthly total is now at around 150 so DEC should finish right on pace with NOV numbers of 177.
In summary, the DEC trending is not to be taken too seriously. A huge amount of shadow inventory is waiting to be released by the lenders. Since the 30,60,90 day deliquency rate is high, there will most likley be an upsurge in new short sales in the first quarter of 2011. The seasonal buyer “snowbird migration” will increase dramatically right after the first of the year bringing plenty of new buyers to the market. In short, I expect to send an entirely different trend developing in JAN.
One important factor that I have not been accounting for in my spreadsheet is the number of homes available at auction on a daily basis at the courthouse steps in Florence. Because I want to track the release of “shadow inventory” closely from now on, I will incoroporate the weekly number of auction homes in Maricopa Arizona being offered for sale. Since it is too difficult to actually track the ones that have been successfully sold, the CLOSED will continue to only reflect those that were on the MLS.
