This is an interesting article from REOInsider  and though it makes some predictions it cautions against do so, especially in a general manner. t rightfully states that “ifferent markets move differently. It’s important to get local.”

Shadow inventory is a major concern. NOBODY really knows what this number is. Without a doubt, many lenders have a backlog of homes ready to be realeased into the marketplace due to various moratoriums and the inability to keep up with the workload. Although I doubt many of the lenders are savy enough (or have the time) to figure this out, the impact on home values dependent on how many properties are released may also be holding them back.

Of course, the “wild card” in all of this is the number of homeowners that have yet to make a decision on their distressed properties. In Maricopa Arizona, I specialize in short sales and am finding that there are just as many if not more homeowners that are seeking a solution. With the Holidays approaching, most are in a “hod pattern” and I expect to see a surge in requests right after the first of the year.

That, of course, brings up still another issue. Many of the current and future short sales will ultimately end up in foreclosure. Therefore, a certain percentage of these short sales must also be calculated into the shaow inventory. That percentage is anybody’s guess.

For my market, I am expecting the short sales and foreclosures to have run their course by the end of 2012. Of course, I could be off by a couple of years!!!!

http://bit.ly/e1CWS4