The highly volatile housing market of the past few years seems to have everyone guessing and predicting on what will happn next. A recent article highlights ten tips by Ted Tsiakopoulos, Ontario’s regional economist for CMHC, and though he is focusing on Canada;s housing market, there is a lot to be gleaned from it when looking at the one in the U.S.

• Reports, reports everywhere: We are currently being inundated with dozens, if not hundreds of reports by various “experts” and agencies. In addition, the media is making headline news out of many of these. This just adds to the confusion and does not necessarily relate to what is going on in our local market.
• Year Over Year Comparisons: It can be dangerous to make these kind of comparisons because it only compares on month versus another and does not take into account the whole year which may in fact show balance.
• Watch the Trends: As with year over year data, you can’t just “pluck” one month out and draw conclusions. Trending is VERY important. When I saw the signs of a double dip occuring in Maricopa Arizona homes in May of 2010, I began tracking the numbers on a weekly basis and incorporating them into a spreadsheet. With what I have learned, I gurantee that I will continue to do this from now on. It has become a Monday morning ritual for me and is very reveailing.
• Discount seasonal activity: This varies in all markets but, if you are tracking trends, you will learn to expect certain changes at different times of the year. Though most of us are aware of this, it seems important to me to compare year over year in this particular area. The Maricopa Arizona home market depends heavily on seasonal buyers and the volume of sales between OCT and MAY is a key indicator for me. Conversely, the summer months of JUNE and JULY is a barometer of local movement as this is the time of the year that many buyers will switch communities while school is out of session.
• Beware the Hand Off: Tsiakopoulos claims that most years begin like the previous one ended and that it is not accurate to draw conclusions on the market from how the year begins.
• The Boomers: In Arizona, this is an important segment of the population. People have been retiring to our state for dozens of years and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The economy may have slowed things down a bit but the flow will continue. The flip side is that most of these homeowners will need to sell in order to buy. The “Echo Boomers”, children of the Baby Boomers will keep this market alive for as long as I am on this earth!

Keep in mind that the real estate market is local. Don’t let the “big picture” distract you from opportunities in your little corner of the world.